DIS

UP AGAINST MAJOR RESISTANCE. OVERBOUGHT WITH DAILY RSI > 80 AND WEEKLY > 70. ENTRY TARGETS: 35.60-36.00. PULLBACK TARGETS- 34.30, 33.60, 32.60

SPY OPTIONS EXPIRATION PIN PLAY

I think SPY will hit 116.3-117.0 early next week (upper channel resistance) and close at 115 (Lower channel support, 50 SMA and also the Jan highs) on Friday. I closed my IWM 66/64 put spreads early this week for a small loss. I will enter SPY Mar 117/115 put spreads at 116.3--117.00

The New Moon on Mar 15th-16th could mark an interim top.

GLTA

SPY

I still believe 115.50 max followed by a pullback to 112.50-113.00 by Mar 15th.

Bollinger Bands are tightening on 15 min and 30 min time frame. A big move is coming............

GLTA

SPY & RUT

RUT: Has retraced 61.8% of the move from 2007 highs to Mar 2009 lows. The SPX low on FRIDAY Mar 6th 2009 was 666.79 and the RUT high on FRIDAY Mar 6th 2010 was 666.02 !!!





My thoughts on SPY for next week:

1. Scenario #1: We could hit 115.00-115.50 early next week and then drop to 112.5-112.8 by end of next week. The lower trend line is the key.

2. Scenario #2: We could drop to 112 early next week and then rally to 115 area.

BOTTOM LINE: I think we will see 112.00-112.5 next week.

NEW MOON on Mar 15th could either mark a high or low of some sort.

I am 30% short via IWM Mar 66/64 put spread at 0.52


GLTA

BIDU

Broke out of the triangle. Target is 520

BIDU

BB are tightening and the stock is trading in a triangle. A $15-20 move (based on the triangle measured move) is coming......

BIDU

Refer to my original post dated Feb 6th-

http://stockmarketmasala.blogspot.com/2010/02/bidu.html

SET UP: Negative divergence on 30 min, 60 min and weekly charts. Daily RSI approaching 70. In the past, every time BIDU's daily RSI hit 70, it underwent 6-10% correction within 1-2 weeks.

STRATEGY: Mar 480/470 put spread.

ENTRY TARGET: 500 and above. The upper BB on the daily chart is at 512.80

EXIT TARGET: Feb 10th gap window and Jan 15th highs at 470-472. The 20 EMA is currently at 462 and rising. A 10% correction from current level will give us a target of 450.

38% retracement of the move from 435 to 500 will give 475 and the 50% retracement-468.

The middle BB on the daily chart is at 450.


GLTA

SPY

I think SPY will go to 109 before EOD Friday (OPX).

Strategy: SPY Feb 111/110 put spread. Possible 100% return.

FEB OPX WEEK PLAYS

I am hoping for a pullback in SPY to 108-108.50 before OPX Fri. The 60 min RSI is slightly above 70. Some low risk OPX plays-

1. BIDU Feb 500/510 bear call spread for a credit of 1.75 or above. If BIDU rallies towards 500 tomorrow, the credit will be 2.50 or above. BIDU will close below 500 on OPX friday based on O.I

2. POT Feb 115/120 bear call spread for a credit of 1.00 or above. POT will close below 115 on OPX Fri based on O.I

3. AAPL Feb 210/220 Bear call spread for a credit. AAPL will close below 210 on OPX Fri based on OI

4. SPY Feb 111/110 or 110/109 put spread. The max upside on SPY this week is 110.4-110.8 IMO (50 MA on the daily is at 110.8). Max return on those put spreads are approx 60% and 130% respectively.

GLTA

RIMM

Set up: Looks like a great short here. Overbought. RSI and STO look ready to roll over.

Strategy: Buy Feb 70 puts if it rallies/gaps up on Tue . This is a high risk, high reward trade. Exit at 70.

BIDU

SET UP: Huge Ending Diagonal, has one more push left to the upside. Target is 480-ish.

ENTRY TARGET: 478-485

STRATEGY: Short at 478-485 using April put spread.

EXIT TARGET: 400 and gap fill at 386-387

CAUTION (Added on 2/7/10 at 23:25 hrs): A throw-over is possible in ending diagonals, in which case, BIDU might hit 500 before rolling over.

KO

EARNINGS: 09 Feb 2010 ( Before Market Opens)

SET UP: Support zone at 52.00-52.50. Oversold going into earnings (Daily RSI at 30)

ENTRY TARGET: 52.00-52.50

EXIT TARGET: 54 and 20 MA at 55

STRATEGY: Mar 55 calls.

PBR

Set up: Double bottom. Daily RSI is 26.50 (oversold). Positive divergence developing.

Entry Target: 38.90. EDIT (2/5/10, 10 AM EST). Next support is 37.40

Strategy: March 40/42 call spread.

Exit target: 23.6% Fib retracement at 41.90 and 38.2% level at 44, which is also the confluence of 20 MA, 200 MA and support/resistance TL

CAUTION: I think PBR is headed to 35-36 by end of March. This is a quick scalp/swing trade.

FCX

Set up: Close to major support and 200 MA on the daily chart. Daily RSI (24) is in oversold territory.

Entry Target: 65.50-66.00. The 200 MA on daily is at 65.58

Strategy: I am long via March 70/75 call spread. I entered on Friday (1/29/10) at 1.50 when FCX was trading at 66.50

Exit Target: 23.6% Fib retracement at 71.00

THREE BLACK CROWS

We have witnessed "THREE BLACK CROWS" candle stick pattern-

http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs74.asp


http://www.tradingday.com/c/candlesticks/candle...

On Monday, I will close my SPY Feb 112 calls (Cost Avg 1.65) at 1100-1105. The calls and puts might lose some value on Monday if the VIX drops. It is something worth keeping in mind!

SPY- Time for a bounce

Entry Target: 1085-1090. 100 day MA is at 1085.

Exit Target: 50 SMA at 1116. 20 MA is currently at 1132 and falling approx 2 points/day. The 50 and 20 MA will be at approx 1115 around Feb 5th.

STI

EARNINGS: Today AMC

SET UP: STI up against major resistance. RSI on 30-min, 60 min and daily time frame is overbought. Very minimal upside. Good earnings are already priced in. Up 10% today!!!

STRATEGY: Feb 24/23 put spread at 0.28

EXIT TARGET: 23.50