Sunday, January 31, 2010

FCX

Set up: Close to major support and 200 MA on the daily chart. Daily RSI (24) is in oversold territory.

Entry Target: 65.50-66.00. The 200 MA on daily is at 65.58

Strategy: I am long via March 70/75 call spread. I entered on Friday (1/29/10) at 1.50 when FCX was trading at 66.50

Exit Target: 23.6% Fib retracement at 71.00



Saturday, January 23, 2010

THREE BLACK CROWS


We have witnessed "THREE BLACK CROWS" candle stick pattern-

http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs74.asp


http://www.tradingday.com/c/candlesticks/candle...

On Monday, I will close my SPY Feb 112 calls (Cost Avg 1.65) at 1100-1105. The calls and puts might lose some value on Monday if the VIX drops. It is something worth keeping in mind!

Friday, January 22, 2010

SPY- Time for a bounce


Entry Target: 1085-1090. 100 day MA is at 1085.

Exit Target: 50 SMA at 1116. 20 MA is currently at 1132 and falling approx 2 points/day. The 50 and 20 MA will be at approx 1115 around Feb 5th.

Thursday, January 21, 2010

STI


EARNINGS: Today AMC

SET UP: STI up against major resistance. RSI on 30-min, 60 min and daily time frame is overbought. Very minimal upside. Good earnings are already priced in. Up 10% today!!!

STRATEGY: Feb 24/23 put spread at 0.28

EXIT TARGET: 23.50



Wednesday, January 20, 2010

GOOG- UPDATE


GOOG CHANNEL: Can GOOG go to new highs?




AXP



EARNINGS: 21 Jan 2010 AMC (After Market Close)

TRADE SET UP: Resistance at 43.50-44.00. The 200 SMA on weekly at 44.04. Daily and weekly RSI approaching 70. Bearish rising wedge?

STRATEGY: Feb 43/42 put spread at 43.50-44.00 level

EXIT TARGET: previous resistance at 42.00



SBUX


Earnings: 20 Jan 2010 AMC (After Market Close)

Set up: Two gaps below- 14.7 and 19.70. Lower parallel trendline currently at 20. Bearish rising wedge pattern.

Targets: 22, 21 and 20

Strategy: Feb 23/22 put spread

RISK: upside target is 25.50. The upper parallel trendline is currently at 25.50



HUM

Set up: HUM is up against major resistance. RSI (daily and weekly above 75) in overbought territory. Should pullback from current levels.

"Republican Scott Brown defeated Democrat Martha Coakley to become the state's next United States senator and potentially derail President Obama's hopes for a health care overhaul."

The health care stocks rallied yesterday in hopes of Scott Brown's victory and he did win! Buy the rumor, sell the news today? A gap and crap is what I see for health care stocks today.

Exit target: gap fill at 48.60

Strategy: Feb 50 puts

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Sunday, January 17, 2010

GOOG


560-570 level should offer support.

Saturday, January 16, 2010

PCLN


PCLN has the potential to go to 240-250. Earnings are on 15 Feb 2010.


The upper trendline runs at approximately 250 around Feb 15th. The middle trendline runs at 220 and the lower trendline runs at 197 around Feb 15th.




Friday, January 15, 2010

ISRG


EARNINGS: 21 Jan 2010 AMC (After Market Closes)




The upper trendline runs approximately at 333 around Jan 21st, the middle trendline runs approximately at 280. and the lower trendline runs approximately at 240.


Fib retracement levels are from March 2009 low to a HYPOTHETICAL high of 335






T




Strong TL support here. RSI below 30. Should bounce from current levels.

Entry range: 25.30-25.70

Exit target: 38% retracement at 26.80

Strategy: Feb 26 calls

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

BIDU



BIDU is up 7% in after hours trading on Google news (possibility of pulling out of China)

The two trendlines and the 50 SMA meet at 418. I might try some Jan puts for a quick scalp.

EDIT (7 AM on Jan 13th): BIDU is trading at 430 in premarket. It could run up to the double top area of 440.

Support: 424-426 and 418

Resistance: 440-442 and NONE above 440-442

A Jan strangle might be a good idea.


JCP- Update


Refer to my original post dated Jan 9th

http://stockmarketmasala.blogspot.com/2010/01/jcp.html

Daily RSI is at 32. Approaching my target entry area (24.25-25). Exit target at 27.00-27.50

DIA

DIA 107-109 (Dow 10700-10900) is a huge resistance and should provide a good shorting opportunity for a 6-10% downside.

Monday, January 11, 2010

F

Hitting against a resistance zone at 12.00-12.30. Daily RSI just shy of 90! Weekly RSI>80. Should pullback to at least 11.70 and possibly to gap fill at 11.00

From Seekingalpha article (http://seekingalpha.com/article/181965-monday-options-update-ndaq-ands-f-eem)-

"Ford Motor Company (F) – As Ford sweeps up the awards at the Detroit Motor Show investors have swept its shares to above $12 for the first time since March 2005. The acceleration in the share price comes at a time when the Chinese market officially overtook the U.S. market as the world’s largest, thanks to successful domestic stimulus at a time when American sales slumped. Still, options trading patterns reflect the risks of getting long the stock as American equity prices struggle to grind higher. Today’s investor interest using options appears to be skewed to the put side. In the February contract volume of 10,000 contracts traded at the $11 strike at a price of 32 cents while more than twice that volume went through at the $12 strike for 70 cents. In the June contract exactly 1,000 contracts were bought for an 8 cents premium at the lowly $5 strike."



MT



38.2 retracement, 200 SMA on weekly and the trendline resistance all point to 49.50-50.00. Weekly RSI is at overbought levels. I am hoping for a pullback at those levels.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

OPTION ARM's




Suggest a market crash in July-Oct 2010 and July-Oct 2011???

"It’s tough to say exactly when the storm will come. But my guess is the second half of 2010.

This second wave of foreclosures will not be good news for the economy or the stock market…At least that’s my guess."


http://dailyreckoning.com/the-second-wave-of-mortgage-defaults/


Look at what happened to stock market after the first wave peak of subprime in Oct 2007. The next wave peak of subprime, Alt A and Option ARM's are due in July-Oct 2010 and 2011.

Saturday, January 9, 2010

JCP



Long at 24.50-25.00. Exit at 27.50-28.00

Friday, January 8, 2010

SPY JAN OPTIONS EXPIRATION WEEK HISTORIC PERFORMANCE

SPY performance during Jan OPX week-

Jan 2009: DOWN 6%
Jan 2008: DOWN 5%
Jan 2007: UP 0.5%
Jan 2006: DOWN 0.1%
Jan 2005: DOWN 1.7%
Jan 2004: UP 1.5%
Jan 2003: DOWN 3%
Jan 2002: DOWN 1.6%
Jan 2001: UP 1.8%
Jan 2000: DOWN 1.6%
Jan 1999: DOWN 2.7%

Since 1999, 8 out of 11 Jan OPX weeks were negative.

SPY- UPDATE

We could go to 1156-1158 on Mon-Tue and then drop to 1130 by OPX

OSIS


Broke above the previous all time highs today. Should pullback to at least 29-30.

Reminds me of swine flu stocks like NVAX, SVA and BCRX. NVAX spiked to 7 in Aug-Oct 2009 and is currently trading at 2.65. SVA spiked to 12 and is currently trading at 6.60. BCRX spiked to 13 and is currently trading at 7.85

PCX


Short at 21.50-22.00

Exit targets-

1st Target: 19.00

2nd Target: The 20 EMA at 16.50

QQQQ




QQQQ can go up to 48.40 by end of Jan or early Feb. I will buy Mar 48/45 put spreads at 47.50, 48.00 and 48.40

X (United States Steel Corporation)- UPDATE



Currently overbought, daily RSI >80 and weekly > 70. STO is way too high.

Short at 64-65 with STOP at 65.5. If it breaks above 65, the next target is 69-70.

Exit target of 58-60

Long term, I think X will go to 75-80

IWM


Short at 66-67

Thursday, January 7, 2010

SPY

I will go 100% short at 1150-1155 with exit targets of 1138 and 1130

SHLD



105-110 is a huge resistance zone. Will short 25% at 105, 35% at 108 and 40% at 110.

Pullback targets- 100 and 90

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

ATI


Short at 50

X


Short at 62.50-63.00

FAST



Short at 47.50

USO, XLE & OIH






USO, XLE and OIH approaching double top levels. Looking for a small pullback from 41.90 on USO, 60.40 on XLE and 131-132 on OIH. Daily RSI on USO, XLE and OIH is at 70's. I think USO, XLE and OIH might break above the double top levels after a small pullback.

TIE and CREE



TIE: Currently overbought, daily RSI >80 and weekly >70. Approaching resistance at 14.90-15.00

CREE: Currently overbought, both daily and weekly RSI >80. Approaching resistance at 60.

60-62 zone acted as a resistance back in 2000

Nov 7, 2000 open-60.16 high-60.16 low-54.00 close-55.81
Nov 6, 2000 open-60.22 high-64.12 low-59.69 close-61.50
Nov 3, 2000 open-56.00 high-61.44 low-54.62 close-59.88

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

MOS


Will the gap at 71 be filled? My answer is yes :)

SPY




Target 1168-1172. I will start scaling into puts at 1150.

CSIQ


Approaching resistance. Overbought with daily RSI >80 and weekly >70. Looking for a pullback to 30 and possibly 27.50

Monday, January 4, 2010

TRADES FOR TOMORROW

1. Short SPY at 1137-1138 with an exit target of 1130

2. Short USO at 40.60-40.70 with an exit target of 39.50

USO


STO is way too high. Resistance at 40-41 zone. Looking for a pullback to 39.50 and possibly the 50 SMA at 38.90

Sunday, January 3, 2010

JAS


Overbought with daily RSI at 69 and weekly at 73. Also forming a bearish raising wedge (broken orange TL and the pink TL). Looking for a pullback to 20 SMA at 34, which is also a confluence of support and resistance trendlines.

MT


Overbought with daily RSI at 70 and weekly RSI at 67. Looking for a pullback to 20 SMA at 43, which is also a gap fill area.