SET UP: Negative divergence on 30 min, 60 min and weekly charts. Daily RSI approaching 70. In the past, every time BIDU's daily RSI hit 70, it underwent 6-10% correction within 1-2 weeks.
STRATEGY: Mar 480/470 put spread.
ENTRY TARGET: 500 and above. The upper BB on the daily chart is at 512.80
EXIT TARGET: Feb 10th gap window and Jan 15th highs at 470-472. The 20 EMA is currently at 462 and rising. A 10% correction from current level will give us a target of 450.
38% retracement of the move from 435 to 500 will give 475 and the 50% retracement-468.
I am hoping for a pullback in SPY to 108-108.50 before OPX Fri. The 60 min RSI is slightly above 70. Some low risk OPX plays-
1. BIDU Feb 500/510 bear call spread for a credit of 1.75 or above. If BIDU rallies towards 500 tomorrow, the credit will be 2.50 or above. BIDU will close below 500 on OPX friday based on O.I
2. POT Feb 115/120 bear call spread for a credit of 1.00 or above. POT will close below 115 on OPX Fri based on O.I
3. AAPL Feb 210/220 Bear call spread for a credit. AAPL will close below 210 on OPX Fri based on OI
4. SPY Feb 111/110 or 110/109 put spread. The max upside on SPY this week is 110.4-110.8 IMO (50 MA on the daily is at 110.8). Max return on those put spreads are approx 60% and 130% respectively.
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The content on this site is provided as information only and should not be taken as an investment advice. This site's content shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author and are for entertainment purposes only. Any investment decision that results in losses or gains made based on any information on this site is not the responsibility of the author.
I have been trading stocks since 2008 and options since 2009. I developed an interest in stock market from my mom, who has been trading in India since 1992. I have a day job and I primarily trade for fun. My interests are technical analysis and trading options. I primarily use support and resistance levels, fibonacci retracement levels, MACD and RSI as my trading tools. To me, Elliot waves are good to explain past market movements but they are not as good in predicting future market direction.
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