WEEKEND STOCK MARKET MASALA- 29 NOV 2009

OUTLOOK: We may get a bounce on Monday to 1100, which will be great ST shorting opportunity IMO. The new moon around Dec 2nd-Dec 4th might mark a cycle low and my exit target is a gap fill at 1070-1072. We could also drop to 1040-1050 but I may not hold until then. We should rally starting Dec 4th/5th according to Alex's ES forecast.

I am currently 15% short (SRS Jan 9/12 call spread and SPY Q4 Dec 109/104 put spread) and will add more if we rally on Monday. I will definitely exit before Dec 4th.

Looking to add GS (entry at 158 and exit at 168-170), GOOG and AAPL call spreads around Dec 4th for X-mas rally


EARNINGS PLAY: I may trade only GES, SNDA and JAS for next week's earnings.

1. GES EARNINGS PLAY: My bias is BEARISH

Bearish count- Double top at 40.50, H&S (head at 40.50, shoulders at 37.50) target of 32, which will also be a gap fill from Aug 26th. The 200 MA on the weekly is at 31.50 and GES is yet to retest the 200 MA since it broke above it in Aug 2009.

Bullish count- The daily chart looks semi bullish.....I am not really convinced until I see the MACD crossover. 1st target: 40-41, 2nd target: 46

My plan: 60% Dec 35/30 put spread and 40% Dec 40 calls


2. SNDA: Neutral bias

I believe it will move 10% after earnings, either goes down to fill the gap at 45.20 or goes up to 54-55 and may be even 60. If the earnings/guidance are bad, it can go as low as 40, which was a major resistance in the past and hence will act as support

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=snda&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

My plan is equal amounts in put spread (Dec 50/45) and calls (Dec 55)

3. JAS: My bias is bearish. 1st target-30 and 2nd target is gap fill at 27.20. Strategy- Put spreads

TIF- EARNINGS PLAY. EARNINGS DATE- 25 NOV 2009 (PRE-MARKET)

TIF (TIFFANY & Co.)

1. Bias: BEARISH

2. Short interest- 8.5%

3. Chart: Looks like a BEARISH RISING WEDGE

CLICK HERE FOR CHART

4. From Yahoo Finance:

Mean Target:	43.31
Median Target:	44.50
High Target:	50.00
Low Target:	35.00
No. of Brokers:	16

5. Odds/Probabilities

No. of earnings : 42
Earnings with less than 5% move: 20 (47%)
Earnings with 5-10% move: 13 (32%)
Earnings with > 10% move: 9 (21%)

6. What are Gurus and Insiders doing with TIF?

http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=TIF

7. STRATEGY: ASSUMING IT TRADES AT CURRENT LEVELS ON THE DAY OF EARNINGS, DEC 41/35 put spread ON THE DAY OF EARNINGS

I would wait until Nov 24th to short it, it may rally into earnings and the best place to short it would be at 43-44 IMHO. If it rallies to 43-44, Dec 43/38 put spread might be a good idea.

THIS STRATEGY IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. PLEASE CHECK BACK ON THE DAY OF EARNINGS TO KNOW MY STRATEGY/POSITION

JCG- EARNINGS PLAY. EARNINGS DATE- 24 NOV 2009 (AFTER-HOURS)

JCG ( J. CREW GROUP, Inc.)


1. Bias: BULLISH

2. Short interest 17%




3. From Yahoo Finance

PRICE TARGET SUMMARY

Mean Target:	45.00
Median Target:	46.00
High Target:	56.00
Low Target:	21.00
No. of Brokers:	17

4. Odds/Probabilities

No. of earnings : 13
Earnings with less than 5% move: 5 (38%)
Earnings with 5-10% move: 3 (14%)
Earnings with > 10% move: 5 (38%)

5. What are Gurus and Insiders doing with JCG?

http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=jcg

6. STRATEGY: Dec 40/45 call spread. May close the position just before earnings if JCG rallies 5% into earnings

JCG has a gap at 42.50 from Nov 18th. If there is no big gap down in markets on Mon, I will probably buy some calls at 40.00-40.50 area and unload them Tuesday evening (hopefully at 42.50) before earnings. I have a feeling it may drop after earnings because it also has a gap at 37.74 from Oct 21st. On the other hand, if the market gaps down huge on Mon, I will wait to see if it fills the gap at 37.74 prior to earnings, in which case I may enter calls at 37.50-38.00 area and hold through the earnings hoping for the gap fill at 42.50. If the earnings and guidance are good, a short squeeze can propel it to 45 (resistance and 1st target) and if it breaks above 45, it has no resistance until 49-50

THIS STRATEGY IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. PLEASE CHECK BACK ON THE DAY OF EARNINGS TO KNOW MY STRATEGY/POSITION

WEEKEND STOCK MARKET MASALA- 21 NOV 2009

Did a quick scan for potential earning/guidance plays for next week and picked the following-

1. Stocks that went up after earnings all the previous three quarters- BCSI, JCG (Michelle Obama's fav shop!), TIF (went up after earnings all the previous SEVEN quarters!!!)

2. Stocks that went down after earnings all the previous three quarters- NUAN

3. DSW

4. DE

If I were to pick three, I would pick JCG, TIF and DSW.

I will try to look at the charts of these stocks over the weekend :-)


GLTA

GME TRADE

In my weekend post (14 Nov 2009), I mentioned about GME as a potential earnings play. Here is what I wrote-

"GME- Bullish.... Insider buying.... I am guessing good sales of Uncharted 2, Call of Duty, Guitar Hero, Tekken 6.....has a gap at 26.60-28.0"

GME held up pretty well today! I will be watching how it trades tomorrow and if there is no sell off, I might buy some Dec 25 calls. I think it will fill the gap at 26.60-28 before X-mas.

I checked GME's performance during the week of Thanksgiving from 2005-2008 and it went up 7-10%.

CLICK HERE for Q3 earnings summary

I have 25.60-25.80 as the first target and it is a resistance zone too. 25.80 is about 5% from current level and if it goes to that level by Nov 26th, the Dec 26 calls which are currently trading at 0.55 will be at 1.10. So we are looking at a 100% return here ;-)

I think it will consolidate when it reaches the 25.60 area and then break above it during the X-mas rally. My target on GME by end of year is 28.

It issued a 2009 EPS Guidance in the range of $2.45 to $2.63. So it is currently trading at a P/E of 10 (using lower end of EPS estimate)

23.70 will be my STOP LOSS. Tomorrow's action should tell us....we will see how it behaves if the market gaps down at the open. I doubt it will break below 23.70-24.0 and if it does, the next stop will be 22.0-22.3. The best entry point would be at 22.0-22.30 for a ride to 25.60-25.80 IMHO

DELL

DELL: Earnings on Thu (Nov 19th) AH. Looks like a bull flag to me-

Chart from theEquilibrium http://chart.ly/gscppf

The flagpole (14 to 17) had good volume and now the rectangular flag is on decreasing volume.

Target upon a breakout of 15.5 would be 18.5 [ Add the height of the flag pole (17-14=3) to the breakout point].

Will DELL go to the 200 SMA on the weekly at 20? DELL has a gap at 16.69

WEEKEND STOCK MARKET MASALA- 15 NOV 2009

1. A good video on DOW/S&P and "Williams % R" by Adam Hewison-

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/dowsp5001112...

2. Video on Gold: SUPPORTS MY THOUGHTS ON GLD.

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/spotgold1112...

PS: Too many people were waiting for 625-650 on S&P to go long in March and the S&P turned around at 666. Now, too many of us are waiting for 1120 to go short and I have a feeling we may fall short again.

JMHO and GLTA

WEEKEND STOCK MARKET MASALA- 14 NOV 2009

GAME PLAN FOR NEXT WEEK


1. BIDU: Add more to my existing put 390/340 put spread (current cost basis is 6.0) if it goes to 439-440, which will be a double top area. The Dec 340 puts are trading at 200% premium and so made use of that to pay for the Dec 390 puts which are trading at 10% premium. BIDU rallied 20% (from 360 to 432) and closed its earnings gap. I am thinking it will drop to 400-410 short term, which is a 5% correction. It has a gap at 410 from Nov 6th. If it drops to 410, the put spread will give a 75% return. Exit at 410

2. GLD: Add more to my existing Dec 108 puts (current cost basis is 2.0) if it goes to 110. Exit at 108. If you look at the GLD chart between Sep 1st & Sep 28th and between Oct 1st and Oct 28th, see how it forms a rounded top with 2-3% trading range before dropping to the previous peak level. I am guessing GLD will trade between 108-110 for the next few days before dropping to 105-106 (20 EMA on daily is at 106) and then it may rally from 105-106. If it breaks above 110 with good volume, which I highly doubt, I will get out of my puts.

3. SPY: Add more to my existing Dec 110/100 put spread (current cost basis is 2.55) if SPY goes to 112-113

4. FSLR: waiting for 112-114 (Sep lows) to buy Dec calls. Exit at 127-130

5. APOL: waiting for 50-51(Oct lows) to buy Dec calls. Exit at 57.

6. I have AAPL Dec 210/220 call spread at 2.60 as a hedge.

7. Potential Earnings play for next week: Narrowed down my original list (CRM, SHLD, BKE, STP, NTES, PLCE, CMED, GME, GYMB, CNQR, CSIQ) to BKE, GME, STP and SHLD.

I was looking at BKE, GME, STP and SHLD. Here is my opinion-

BKE- Bearish.... recent downgrade by GS....looks like it could go to 27......could be a good short at 30-31

GME- Bullish.... Insider buying.... I am guessing good sales of Uncharted 2, Call of Duty, Guitar Hero, Tekken 6.....has a gap at 26.60-28.0

STP- Bullish.... could go to 16.....However, options activity show a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 7.62

SHLD: Neutral.....almost everyone is bearish....short term, could go to the resistance area of 77-78



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GLTA :-)

CTRP EARNINGS PLAY

CTRP earnings are Wed AH. It has been up 20% since last week. RSI is at 64 right now. If it rallies tomorrow and wed due to PCLN effect, it will be overbought going into earnings. I hope it rallies to 67-68 to form a double top.

CLICK HERE FOR CHART

This is from Yahoo finance-

PRICE TARGET SUMMARY

Mean Target:	60.51
Median Target:	63.00
High Target:	70.00
Low Target:	46.00
No. of Brokers:	13

STRATEGY: I am planning to do 70-75% put spread and 25-30% call spread.

Actual trade will be posted on Wed between 3-4 PM

You can follow me at Annamall's blog

GLD DEC PUTS

I just found a low risk trade.

GLD (CURRENTLY AT 108.6):

Set up #1: I looked at the past 5 years and GLD almost always dropped between Nov 10th to Nov 20th. The range of drop was 2-5%.

Set up #2: GLD weekly and daily RSI are both >70 and it always pulled back when this happened in the past.

Set up #3: Looking at the daily chart, pay attention to the black candlestick we have today and see for similar candlesticks in the past and look at what happened the next few days.

I am thinking GLD Dec puts for the next few days could be a good trade.

GLTA

WAVE 2 AND INVERSE H&S TARGET

Daneric has it going to 78.6 Fib at 1085.95.

IHS target approx 1090-1092.

There is an intra day gap from Oct 26th 2009 at 1085.

If we have a gap up open today, we will have two unfilled gaps within a week (1046.50 and 1069.30). We should fill at least one of them soon.

GAME PLAN: Short between 1085-1090 level using Dec puts.

Follow me at my favorite blog- Annamall

GLTA

GMCR EARNINGS PLAY

ODDS/PROBABILITIES

Earnings since 2007, total of 11 (N=11)
No.of Earnings with <10%- 3, which is 27%
No.of Earnings with 10-20% move- 6, which is 54%
No.of Earnings with >20% move- 2, which is 19%
In summary, the odds of GMCR moving more than 10% after earnings is 73%


PRICE TARGET SUMMARY

This is from Yahoo finance (I am not sure how accurate it is)-

Mean Target: 84.00
Median Target: 81.00
High Target: 102.00
Low Target: 72.00
No. of Brokers: 4

Earnings are on wednesday, Nov 11th AH. It has 28% short interest. It has an unfilled gap at 35-48. I have a bearish bias with a conservative price target of 60. It can go as low as 48-50. The 200 DMA on daily is at 51 and 50 DMA on weekly is at 48.

CLICK HERE FOR CHART

However, I have to admit that the daily chart looks bullish

STRATEGY

50-55% Nov 75/65 put spread and 45-50% Nov 80/90 call spread


This strategy is subject to change. Please visit Annamall's website to see her strategy on GMCR.