Saturday, November 14, 2009



1. BIDU: Add more to my existing put 390/340 put spread (current cost basis is 6.0) if it goes to 439-440, which will be a double top area. The Dec 340 puts are trading at 200% premium and so made use of that to pay for the Dec 390 puts which are trading at 10% premium. BIDU rallied 20% (from 360 to 432) and closed its earnings gap. I am thinking it will drop to 400-410 short term, which is a 5% correction. It has a gap at 410 from Nov 6th. If it drops to 410, the put spread will give a 75% return. Exit at 410

2. GLD: Add more to my existing Dec 108 puts (current cost basis is 2.0) if it goes to 110. Exit at 108. If you look at the GLD chart between Sep 1st & Sep 28th and between Oct 1st and Oct 28th, see how it forms a rounded top with 2-3% trading range before dropping to the previous peak level. I am guessing GLD will trade between 108-110 for the next few days before dropping to 105-106 (20 EMA on daily is at 106) and then it may rally from 105-106. If it breaks above 110 with good volume, which I highly doubt, I will get out of my puts.

3. SPY: Add more to my existing Dec 110/100 put spread (current cost basis is 2.55) if SPY goes to 112-113

4. FSLR: waiting for 112-114 (Sep lows) to buy Dec calls. Exit at 127-130

5. APOL: waiting for 50-51(Oct lows) to buy Dec calls. Exit at 57.

6. I have AAPL Dec 210/220 call spread at 2.60 as a hedge.

7. Potential Earnings play for next week: Narrowed down my original list (CRM, SHLD, BKE, STP, NTES, PLCE, CMED, GME, GYMB, CNQR, CSIQ) to BKE, GME, STP and SHLD.

I was looking at BKE, GME, STP and SHLD. Here is my opinion-

BKE- Bearish.... recent downgrade by GS....looks like it could go to 27......could be a good short at 30-31

GME- Bullish.... Insider buying.... I am guessing good sales of Uncharted 2, Call of Duty, Guitar Hero, Tekken 6.....has a gap at 26.60-28.0

STP- Bullish.... could go to 16.....However, options activity show a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 7.62

SHLD: Neutral.....almost everyone is bearish....short term, could go to the resistance area of 77-78

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GLTA :-)
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