GMCR EARNINGS PLAY

ODDS/PROBABILITIES

Earnings since 2007, total of 11 (N=11)
No.of Earnings with <10%- 3, which is 27%
No.of Earnings with 10-20% move- 6, which is 54%
No.of Earnings with >20% move- 2, which is 19%
In summary, the odds of GMCR moving more than 10% after earnings is 73%


PRICE TARGET SUMMARY

This is from Yahoo finance (I am not sure how accurate it is)-

Mean Target: 84.00
Median Target: 81.00
High Target: 102.00
Low Target: 72.00
No. of Brokers: 4

Earnings are on wednesday, Nov 11th AH. It has 28% short interest. It has an unfilled gap at 35-48. I have a bearish bias with a conservative price target of 60. It can go as low as 48-50. The 200 DMA on daily is at 51 and 50 DMA on weekly is at 48.

CLICK HERE FOR CHART

However, I have to admit that the daily chart looks bullish

STRATEGY

50-55% Nov 75/65 put spread and 45-50% Nov 80/90 call spread


This strategy is subject to change. Please visit Annamall's website to see her strategy on GMCR.