Sunday, November 29, 2009


: We may get a bounce on Monday to 1100, which will be great ST shorting opportunity IMO. The new moon around Dec 2nd-Dec 4th might mark a cycle low and my exit target is a gap fill at 1070-1072. We could also drop to 1040-1050 but I may not hold until then. We should rally starting Dec 4th/5th according to Alex's ES forecast.

I am currently 15% short (SRS Jan 9/12 call spread and SPY Q4 Dec 109/104 put spread) and will add more if we rally on Monday. I will definitely exit before Dec 4th.

Looking to add GS (entry at 158 and exit at 168-170), GOOG and AAPL call spreads around Dec 4th for X-mas rally

EARNINGS PLAY: I may trade only GES, SNDA and JAS for next week's earnings.


Bearish count- Double top at 40.50, H&S (head at 40.50, shoulders at 37.50) target of 32, which will also be a gap fill from Aug 26th. The 200 MA on the weekly is at 31.50 and GES is yet to retest the 200 MA since it broke above it in Aug 2009.

Bullish count- The daily chart looks semi bullish.....I am not really convinced until I see the MACD crossover. 1st target: 40-41, 2nd target: 46

My plan: 60% Dec 35/30 put spread and 40% Dec 40 calls

2. SNDA: Neutral bias

I believe it will move 10% after earnings, either goes down to fill the gap at 45.20 or goes up to 54-55 and may be even 60. If the earnings/guidance are bad, it can go as low as 40, which was a major resistance in the past and hence will act as support

My plan is equal amounts in put spread (Dec 50/45) and calls (Dec 55)

3. JAS: My bias is bearish. 1st target-30 and 2nd target is gap fill at 27.20. Strategy- Put spreads

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